PREDICT-HF Risk Calculator

PREDICT-HF Risk Score: Explanation and Clinical Context The PREDICT-HF model (PARADIGM Risk of Events and Death in Contemporary Treatment of Heart Failure) was derived in patients enrolled in the PARADIGM‑HF trial (n ≈ 8,011) with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and was subsequently validated in the ATMOSPHERE trial population and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF). Key baseline predictors included age, sex, race/ethnicity, region of enrolment, longer heart failure duration, higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), presence of diabetes mellitus, baseline use of a β-blocker, and baseline NT-proBNP level — among others. In internal validation, the model achieved C-statistics (Harrell’s C) of ~0.74 at 1 year and ~0.71 at 2 years for the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization.

Clinically, the score supports stratification of ambulatory HFrEF patients receiving contemporary evidence-based therapy. Patients identified at higher risk may benefit from more intensive monitoring, earlier consideration of novel therapies or devices, and closer follow-up.