HCM Screening Yield (Community Athlete) Calculator

HCM Screening Yield Model (Community Athlete): Comprehensive Explanation and Clinical Context This calculator estimates the diagnostic yield of ECG-based pre-participation screening for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in community athletes. It combines sensitivity, specificity, and expected HCM prevalence to derive true positives, false negatives, false positives, and true negatives, as well as PPV, NPV, yield per 1,000 screened, and number needed to screen (NNS). How to set inputs: Cohort size: Number of athletes screened in your program or season.

Prevalence: Typically ≈0.2% (1 in 500) in the general population; lower (0.005–0.05%) in community athlete cohorts. Sensitivity & Specificity: With modern athlete ECG criteria, sensitivity ≈90–94% and specificity ≈96–98%. Clinical significance: This model provides practical yield estimates to guide screening programs and resource planning.

Because PPV depends on prevalence, even highly accurate tests may yield modest PPV in low-prevalence groups. Serial or repeated screening increases yield but is not modeled here.