Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) Risk Score Calculator

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) Risk Score: Explanation and Clinical Context The Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation (POAF) Risk Score, developed by Mariscalco and colleagues, provides a simple, evidence-based model to estimate the likelihood of new-onset atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery. The score incorporates nine routinely available preoperative clinical variables: age, sex, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, left ventricular dysfunction, recent myocardial infarction, valve procedure, emergency operation, and use of intra-aortic balloon pump. Each variable contributes weighted points derived from multivariable logistic regression.

The total score stratifies patients into four categories of predicted risk: low (≤2 points, ≈10%), moderate (3–4 points, ≈25%), high (5–6 points, ≈40%), and very high (≥7 points, >50%). Clinically, POAF is associated with increased morbidity, prolonged hospital stay, and higher postoperative stroke risk. This predictive model supports perioperative management decisions, such as closer monitoring, rhythm prophylaxis, or early anticoagulation strategies in high-risk individuals.