Lung Nodule Malignancy Risk Calculator

Lung Nodule Malignancy Risk Calculator Explanation and Clinical Context This calculator uses the Brock University Model which is one of the most validated prediction tools for estimating the probability of malignancy in pulmonary nodules detected on computed tomography. It integrates clinical variables and radiologic features to produce a numerical estimate of cancer probability that supports decision making in surveillance imaging biopsy or surgical evaluation. The model incorporates patient age nodule size sex family history of lung cancer emphysema spiculation and upper lobe location.

Larger size irregular or spiculated borders and upper lobe position are established radiologic markers that increase malignant potential. Family history and emphysema reflect host level risk factors that modify baseline probability. The final output is a calculated risk percentage that helps clinicians classify nodules as low intermediate or high risk which is consistent with commonly used clinical pathways.

A risk estimate below five percent typically supports noninvasive surveillance with interval CT. An intermediate estimate between five and sixty five percent may prompt further functional imaging or tissue sampling. Values above sixty five percent often justify surgical or oncologic evaluation depending on patient comorbidity and operative candidacy.

This model is intended as a clinical aid and not a replacement for medical judgment. Interpretation must always incorporate patient history radiologic pattern stability over time and multidisciplinary review. Reference McWilliams A et al.

Probability of cancer in pulmonary nodules detected on first screening CT. New England Journal of Medicine 2013.